Points

1, the economic environment Overview: the US economy continues to recover, the real estate market recovery to regain momentum, employment, consumption cycle continues to improve. The euro zone economic recovery momentum is slightly strengthened, the unemployment rate showed a downward trend. China's manufacturing industry weakened, fixed asset investment growth continued to fall, exports and consumption improved slightly, the economic downward pressure is still large, especially in the real estate market risk.

2, national policy orientation: July 30, the Fed once again reduced the number of assets of 10 billion US dollars to 25 billion US dollars. European monetary policy loosened, the European Central Bank to maintain low interest rates. China in addition to the north and outside the Guangzhou-Shenzhen real estate market were liberalized. Real estate bailout kicked off.

3, the main driving force of copper prices and constraints: long-term downturn mainly due to potential economic growth in China down, copper supply and demand patterns relaxed, hidden high inventories. The rebound in copper prices in the early days was mainly due to the Chinese government's emphasis on maintaining growth in the diplomatic environment, the market sentiment from cautious to relatively optimistic, and the stock is not surplus. China's economy is not stalled, and the financial system can still be the case, the US interest rate increase and the expected economic operation in China to promote fluctuations in copper prices.

4, other indicators of verification: the dollar index slightly callback. Gold and silver rebounded. China's fixed asset investment growth continued to fall, real estate sales area growth rate continued to fall. China's Shanghai Composite Index finished ascribed, real estate and financial sector fluctuations.

5, the spot price: September 30, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot premium of 90 yuan / ton to flat water, flat copper transaction price 48,780 yuan / ton -48,840 yuan / ton, premium copper transaction price 48,800 yuan / ton -48,920 yuan / Ton. Shanghai copper futures high, the last trading day before the holiday, holding the goods to hedge-oriented, exchange willingness weakened, no intention to further expand the premium, some holders of goods very price, only a small amount of downstream replenishment, the market basically into the preganglionic Settlement status, supply and demand characteristics of two obvious.

6, the recent important economic data: 9, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes, when the number of jobless claims.

7, an important industry news: Newmont Mining Indonesia subsidiary has completed since the promulgation of the new mining rules since the first batch of copper concentrate exports, thus giving the company and the Indonesian government nearly nine months of tax disputes ended.

Summary:

The International Monetary Fund will be the 2014 global economic growth is expected to cut to 3.3%, 0.1% lower than expected in July. Global economic growth in 2015 is expected to decline to 3.8% in July is expected to 4%. The number of vacancies in the United States in August reached 4.84 million, the highest level since January 2001. US unemployment rate continues to decline, employment consumption cycle continues to improve, the Fed to raise interest rates into the discussion stage. Global economic growth is weak, limiting the demand for industrial products. China's real estate market downward pressure to increase the government began to rescue the market, but the effect remains to be seen. During the holidays, copper prices slightly finishing, there is no significant change. Is expected to maintain order in recent days, strategy, the early proposal of the empty one can be a small reduction, to be recovered after the rebound.

Hongyuan Futures Research Center

Researcher Zhang Lei

Tel: 010-88085521