Construction machinery product sales rebound industry is expected to bottom out
At present, the construction machinery industry dropped significantly for four years, the industry overkill, the future will benefit from infrastructure, real estate, PPP project to promote. Since the beginning of this year, construction machinery stock equipment hours continue to improve, seven or eight excavators, cranes, bulldozers, roller machine sales rebounded significantly, cyclical varieties of investment in the performance of the inflection point, the fourth quarter strategic multi-engineering machinery.
Construction machinery products sales rebound
Excavators in February and February this year, there has been a sharp rebound. From the excavator varieties point of view, small digging and digging sales hot, dug dull, we were to determine the small dig and real estate to inventory, the park construction demand growth, digging with some of the demand for picking ore, Two clear inventory, the country three excavator listing has a certain relationship. Sales in the second quarter is still down, recovery failed. And the third quarter of the small season ahead of arrival, seven or eight excavators continuous positive growth in August excavator industry sales growth of 45%, Sany Heavy Machinery excavator sales growth of 40%, market share of the first, Xugong and three one excavator inventory Tension, Heng Li hydraulic excavator cylinder also picked up 30%, shield machine tank shipments doubled. Compared to the February-March excavator sales growth, seven or eight months of data more fundamental support: the real estate market continued hot, PPP boost large infrastructure projects, we believe that although the August high growth and low base last year, many Manufacturers and dealers operating pressure is still large, but the confidence in the construction machinery industry in the recovery, industry profits have bottomed out.
Crane sales in August also showed positive growth. As part of the listed companies due to information disclosure reasons, did not report the association sales, so the association data distortion. We learned that in July Xugong truck crane growth of about 58%, road machinery increased by 30%, rotary drilling rig growth of 57%, loaders fell 13%. Is expected in August Xugong truck crane growth of 50%, 9,10 month order growth can be expected. Zoomlion in August began a positive growth in the truck crane.
Industry is expected to bottom out
According to the news, the third batch of PPP has been issued, the project more than 500 investment over one trillion. At the beginning of June this year, the Ministry of Finance jointly launched the third batch of PPP demonstration projects with 20 ministries and commissions to launch a number of replicable and popular demonstration cases to boost more PPP projects. In 2014 the Ministry of Finance launched the first 30 PPP demonstration projects with a total investment of 180 billion yuan. The number and total investment of the second batch of PPP demonstration projects in 2015 were 206 and 658.9 billion yuan respectively, and it was two years ahead of 2016.
Construction machinery industry is the worst time in the past, next year is expected to resume growth. 2011 - 2012 credit sales overdraft demand, last year sales have dropped to freezing point, construction machinery investor confidence also collapsed, exit agents and production enterprises are increasing. According to industry experts estimate that Komatsu China is expected to profit flat, Carter slightly profitable, Doosan, VOLVO, Kobelco, Hitachi loss, industry channel problems also need time to solve the funds and the pressure is still very heavy. However, we see the current construction machinery industry has been a substantial decline in risk, and now customers are rational, credit better, manufacturers are also very rational, very strict customer qualification, strict control of down payment and inventory, this year customers also Section of the overdue rate is also down to the three excavators, for example, overdue rate of only 60% of 2013, significantly improved. At present, Trinity monitoring excavator operating rate has risen to 2/3, the average working hours also continued to grow. Excavator current stock market for 1.2 million -140 million units, the annual update should also have 80,000 units (generally medium-sized excavator work 8000 hours update, and in fact used 12,000 -1.5 million hours), and last year sales Down to 56,000 units have been abnormal, so we judge the construction machinery industry rebound soon, now near the break-even point, once the sales rebound, profit will be significantly improved.
Fourth quarter can be more strategic
Construction machinery industry overkill, the worst time is in the past, the second half to next year is expected to resume growth, performance will be improved, although the relative valuation is still high, it is difficult from the growth and stock price perspective, but the cycle stocks usually Is to buy in the performance of the inflection point and high PE, and the leading enterprises are also actively transition or mergers and acquisitions, and are in the implementation of the cost reduction strategy.
